2016
//
Science of Success

Quantifying the Evolution of Individual Scientific Impact

Abstract
Despite the frequent use of numerous quantitative indicators to gauge the professional impact of a scientist, little is known about how scientific impact emerges and evolves in time. Here, we quantify the changes in impact and productivity throughout a career in science, finding that impact, as measured by influential publications, is distributed randomly within a scientist’s sequence of publications. This random-impact rule allows us to formulate a stochastic model that uncouples the effects of productivity, individual ability, and luck and unveils the existence of universal patterns governing the emergence of scientific success. The model assigns a unique individual parameter Q to each scientist, which is stable during a career, and it accurately predicts the evolution of a scientist’s impact, from the h-index to cumulative citations, and independent recognitions, such as prizes.

..

More publications
Y.-Y. Liu and A.-L. Barabasi

Review of Modern Physics 88: 3, 035006-035064 (2016)

view
G. Basler, Z. Nikoloski, A. Larhlimi, A.-L. Barabasi, and Y.-Y. Liu

Genome Research 7: 26, 956-968 (2016)

view
P. Deville, C. Song, N. Eagle, V. D. Blondel, A.-L. Barabasi, D. Wang

PNAS 113: 26, 7047-7052 (2016)

view