Modelling the scaling properties of human mobility
A range of applications, from predicting the spread of human and electronic viruses to city planning and resource management in mobile communications, depend on our ability to foresee the whereabouts and mobility of individuals, raising a fundamental question: To what degree is human behavior predictable? Here we explore the limits of predictability in human dynamics by studying the mobility patterns of anonymized mobile phone users. By measuring the entropy of each individual’s trajectory, we find a 93% potential predictability in user mobility across the whole user base. Despite the significant differences in the travel patterns, we find a remarkable lack of variability in predictability, which is largely independent of the distance users cover on a regular basis.
Kavitha Venkatesan, Jean-François Rual, Alexei Vazquez, Ulrich Stelzl, Irma Lemmens, Tomoko Hirozane-Kishikawa, Tong Hao, Martina Zenkner, Xiaofeng Xin, Kwang-Il Goh, Muhammed A Yildirim, Nicolas Simonis, Kathrin Heinzmann, Fana Gebreab, Julie M Sahalie, Sebiha Cevik, Christophe Simon, Anne-Sophie de Smet, Elizabeth Dann, Alex Smolyar, Arunachalam Vinayagam, Haiyuan Yu, David Szeto, Heather Borick, Amélie Dricot, Niels Klitgord, Ryan R Murray, Chenwei Lin, Maciej Lalowski, Jan Timm, Kirstin Rau, Charles Boone, Pascal Braun, Michael E Cusick, Frederick P Roth, David E Hill, Jan Tavernier, Erich E Wanker, Albert-László Barabási & Marc Vidal