Human Dynamics

Impact of non-Poissonian activity patterns on spreading processes

Halting a computer or biological virus outbreak requires a detailed understanding of the timing of the interactions between susceptible and infected individuals. While current spreading models assume that users interact uniformly in time, following a Poisson process, a series of recent measurements indicates that the intercontact time distribution is heavy tailed, corresponding to a temporally inhomogeneous bursty contact process. Here we show that the non-Poisson nature of the contact dynamics results in prevalence decay times significantly larger than predicted by the standard Poisson process based models. Our predictions are in agreement with the detailed time resolved prevalence data of computer viruses, which, according to virus bulletins, show a decay time close to a year, in contrast with the 1 day decay predicted by the standard Poisson process based models.


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Cristian Candia, C. Jara-Figueroa, Carlos Rodriguez-Sickert, Albert-László Barabási, and César A. Hidalgo

Nature Human Behavior 3, 82–91 (2019)

Federico Battiston, Federico Musciotto, Dashun Wang, Albert-László Barabási, Michael Szell, and Roberta Sinatra

Nature Reviews Physics 1, 89-97 (2019)

Stephen Kosack, Michele Coscia, Evann Smith, Kim Albrecht, Albert-László Barabási, and Ricardo Hausmann

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Oct 2018, 201803228; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1803228115